Perspective on the change of future war development

■ Li Yuxi Liu Heshan

You can’t understand war without understanding the times. As the society enters the era of intelligence, the form of war has also undergone profound evolution. In what way human beings produce, they fight in what way. There is an intelligent mode of production in the intelligent era, which will inevitably shape an intelligent form of war. With the development of science and technology, the presentation form, decision-making mode, organizational style and security mode of war will undergo subversive changes.

The change in the form of war. The form of war is the historical coordinate of the development process of war, which determines the orientation of the times in which human war activities are located in each period. Since the 1960s and 1970s, with the grand development of new military revolution on a global scale, the form of war has also started the continuous acceleration process of the transformation from mechanized war to information war, and finally to the advanced stage of information war-intelligent war. The future war will enter the era supported by intelligent technology, and the field of confrontation will involve politics, economy, diplomacy, society and many other fields. The combat space will be extended from the traditional physical space to the virtual cognitive space, the grouping of combat forces will be transformed from man-machine mixed grouping to unmanned combat cluster, and the combat action will be developed from man-machine cooperation and people-oriented action to unmanned autonomous combat. On the surface, it seems calm, but the confrontation in intangible space is surging. The strategic game of mixed war is becoming increasingly clear, and the war will fully enter ".

The change of war decision-making mode. All along, the way of war decision-making has been comprehensively restricted by various factors such as battlefield reconnaissance, command, communication and support. With the development of intelligent unmanned, network information and other technologies, the way of war decision-making will change intelligently, showing the characteristics of data support, algorithm dominance, man-machine collusion and distribution autonomy. Before launching actions in the tangible battlefield space, all sides of the war confrontation calculate first and then fight. The massive intelligence data obtained from multiple sources are processed through cloud brain fusion. With the help of digital twinning, virtual reality and holographic projection imaging technology, the intelligent confrontation deduction is carried out in the network virtual space first, and the comprehensive strength of the enemy and ourselves is compared and analyzed, so that the deduction results can serve the war decision. When making decisions in the war, we adopt the "man in the loop" brain-computer coordination decision-making mode, and with the perceptual divergent thinking of the human brain and the powerful calculation and statistics ability of the computer, we can quickly judge the situation, plan the task, give instructions and adjust independently, so as to realize the perfect combination of decision-making art and decision-making science.

The change of war organization style. In recent years, no matter the concepts such as "autonomous war", "shadow war" and "the sixth generation war", or the "Joint Concept" of the US military or the "Armed Forces Construction Plan" of the Russian military, they are all based on the development trend of science and technology. Mechanized warfare is a platform-centered physical destruction attack, information warfare is a network-centered system confrontation battle, and intelligent warfare is a comprehensive strength contest centered on cognitive decision-making. The supporting combat system is mainly subversive technologies such as unmanned control, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, quantum communication, blockchain, etc., emphasizing distributed real-time killing centered on cognitive decision-making. In the near future, the continuous development of intelligent technologies such as deep neural network, brain-computer interaction, automatic processing, 3D printing and Internet of Things will inevitably improve the scientific and technological content in the military field, making the war organization style show the characteristics of "some people are not combined, no one is independent in front, and some people are regulating in the rear".

The change of war support mode. At all times and in all countries, outstanding military strategists all attach importance to the security work in the war, as the saying goes, "the military and horses have not moved, and the food and grass come first." For example, in the battle of Guandu in ancient times, Cao Jun attacked Wu Chao at night, which destroyed the grain and grass of Yuan Shao’s army and defeated the whole army. In modern warfare, due to the lack of logistics supply, the troops with fierce offensive on the battlefield have to stop and wait for the supply of military supplies, thus missing the fighters, and so on. Therefore, war support determines the outcome of the war in a certain sense, and its position and role have always been very important. It is not only an important content of military management, but also a key support to win the war. In the past, there were too many war support activities, a single source of support resources and simple and extensive implementation of support. However, with the change of intelligent war form, the war support model will also undergo subversive changes. The future war support will rely on the Internet of Things technology and intelligent information system, with physical distributed storage, virtual centralized management and military-civilian cooperative supply of support resources, global real-time monitoring, intelligent prediction matching and advanced planning for support organization implementation, so as to realize joint logistics supply, global configuration, intelligent deployment and accurate forward delivery of war support resources, ensure accurate, efficient, stable and reliable implementation of war support, and continuously extend the battlefield support capability to the end.

A change in the line of checks and balances in war. War is a kingdom of uncertainty. For a long time, people have known that it is difficult to achieve victory only by "straight thinking" and "open array". Liddell hart, a British strategic theorist, analyzed the successful strategic cases in the world and found a rule: 90% of them used the "indirect route". However, the "indirect route" has long appeared as a supplementary role of the direct route. However, compared with the past, the modern warfare system is huge, there are many nodes, and there are many vulnerable "life gates", which provides a broader opportunity for choosing "indirect route" and implementing "asymmetric" checks and balances. Judging from several local wars in the world in recent years, even the powerful American army attaches great importance to the "devious plan" in the face of weak opponents. "Those who are good and amazing are infinite as heaven and earth, and inexhaustible as rivers." No matter now or in the future, the strategic game of war between countries, especially among the world’s military powers with strong strategic damage capabilities, can neither achieve their own operational goals according to conventional thinking, nor simply have the idea of fighting an "open array." In order to win the future war, we must follow and develop the winning mechanism of the future war, adhere to the "indirect route" and do a good job of asymmetric checks and balances, so as to always grasp the initiative of the war.

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　　　　According to Caijing, Teng Wancui, member of the Standing Committee of Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture, Hunan Province, and Minister of United Front Work, was "double-regulated" by the Hunan Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection on October 24 due to serious violations of discipline such as illegal fund-raising. Up to now, 113 cadres of party and government organs, enterprises and institutions have been investigated for the alleged "illegal fund-raising incident in Xiangxi".

　　The early withdrawal of officials caused the fund-raising chain to break.

　　　　The reporter was informed that Teng Wancui was taken to Changsha for investigation by the Hunan Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection more than 10 days ago, and her husband Liu, who works for Xiangxi Agricultural Bank, was also investigated. According to informed sources, Teng Wancui’s main problem is to participate in illegal fund-raising and withdraw principal and interest in advance, and the amount of fund-raising is huge. In addition, Teng Wancui is also suspected of taking bribes and participating in mine management.

　　　　In recent years, a number of enterprises in Xiangxi have long used the promise of high interest returns as bait to attract private funds, involving thousands of fund-raising households, absorbing more than 10 billion yuan, and a large number of government officials participated in fund-raising In mid-2008, some government officials involved in fund-raising got the information and withdrew the principal and interest in advance, which triggered the fund-raising chain to break.

　　　　Since then, in less than half a month, some financing enterprises in Jishou City, the seat of Xiangxi Prefecture, have taken away at least 1 billion yuan, and most of them have broken their capital chains. Worried that it would be difficult to recover the principal, on September 3 and 4, more than 10,000 fund-raisers gathered twice to contain the Xiangxi government and the railway station, and then the police force was used to calm down. Since then, fund-raisers have blocked the Xiangxi government twice.

　　Conceal and lie when being investigated.

　　　　The reporter was informed that during the investigation by the Hunan Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection and the task force of the Provincial Supervision Department, Teng Wancui had serious intentional concealment and false reporting when explaining that he, his spouse and his children participated in illegal fund-raising in Xiangxi.

　　　　According to the reporter’s understanding, Teng Wancui is mainly suspected of participating in the illegal fund-raising of Xiangxi Rongchang Group and Jishou Guangcai Real Estate Development Company, and is closely related to these two enterprises, and Teng Wancui once paid more attention to Guangcai Real Estate Company.

　　　　Teng Wancui was born on December 22, 1959 in Fenghuang County, Xiangxi Prefecture, Hunan Province. She was a native Tujia female cadre and ranked fourth in the Standing Committee of Xiangxi Prefecture before the incident.

　　　　According to the relevant personage of Xiangxi government, Teng Wancui is bold by nature and good at approaching leaders. Teng himself was recruited into the Grain Station of Fenghuang County Grain Bureau in his early years and later turned into a cadre. Since then, Teng, as a female cadre of ethnic minorities, has been sent to South-Central University for Nationalities to study, and later served as a member of the Party Committee, office director and theoretical teacher of the Party School of Fenghuang County Committee, and has since embarked on a career. Since December 2002, he has been promoted to the Standing Committee of Xiangxi State Committee and Minister of United Front Work.

　　　　People close to the task force revealed to reporters that Teng Wancui was also suspected of taking advantage of his position to accept bribes; Participate in mining and tourism project development, and obtain illegal benefits from it.

　　　　In fact, Teng Wancui is only one of many party and government officials suspected of illegal fund-raising. In mid-October, the preliminary investigation results released by the Hunan provincial government showed that 113 cadres of party and government organs, enterprises and institutions had participated in fund-raising, among which quite a few were party and government officials at or above the county level.

　　More than half of Jishou’s families participate.

　　Many residents sell houses to raise funds.

　　　　Private fund-raising in Xiangxi has been going on for some time, but large-scale fund-raising began in 2002. By 2008, illegal fund-raising reached a fever pitch, with monthly interest generally above 8%, and some enterprises even as high as 10% to 12%.

　　　　According to the analysis report released by the People’s Bank of China Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture Sub-branch in July 2008, by the end of June 2008, the scale of private lending in the autonomous prefecture was nearly 7 billion yuan, accounting for more than half of the total loans of financial institutions in this region in the same period.

　　　　At present, the Xiangxi government has sent a working group to conduct liquidation of 12 enterprises with large illegal financing. A police officer involved in the investigation of illegal fund-raising told reporters that it is conservatively estimated that the total amount of illegal fund-raising may exceed 10 billion yuan.

　　　　On September 4th, Jishou Municipal Government issued a notice to register the fund-raising situation, and set up 28 fund-raising registration points in the urban area to check the fund-raising situation. The urban population of Jishou City is less than 200,000, and more than half of the families have participated in illegal fund-raising. In eight counties under the jurisdiction of Xiangxi, such as Longshan, Fenghuang, Guzhang and Huayuan, illegal fund-raising is also quite serious.

　　　　In addition to the above-mentioned key financing enterprises, the local public security organs are still investigating more small financing enterprises. According to police sources, "the financing amount of these investigated financing enterprises is about 200 million yuan, and some of them have been found to be suspected of fraud."

　　　　Illegal fund-raising has a great influence on all aspects of Xiangxi. The reporter learned in Ganzhou New District of Jishou City that the Xuantan community, which has the highest amount of illegal fund-raising, has raised more than 100 million yuan. Many residents even sell houses to raise funds and borrow money, and their lives are in a difficult situation because of no return of principal and interest. (Reporter Ouyang Hongliang)

Editor: Li Xian