What kind of crisis is Sudan experiencing in the Middle East?
On September 13th, local time, the UN Security Council held an open meeting on the situation in Sudan. In his briefing to the Security Council, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Sudan, Volcker perthes, said, "The armed conflict in Sudan shows no signs of abating, and neither side can win a decisive military victory. Since the outbreak of the conflict, at least 5,000 people have been killed and more than 12,000 injured. This is only a conservative estimate, and the actual number of casualties may be higher … … Sudan faces the risk of division. The conflict that began between the two armed forces is likely to escalate into a full-scale civil war in Sudan. "
The conflict in Sudan continues to be deadlocked.
Many forces are involved in the war.
From April 15th this year, two factions of Sudan’s former military camp — — The exchange of fire between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in the capital circle, Darfur, Kordofan and other places has continued to this day. On September 15th, the conflict in Sudan has entered its sixth month. The two sides of the conflict still show no signs of stopping fighting, and conflicts in many places continue to be deadlocked. Under the cloud of war, the situation in Sudan is "out of control".
If you want to ask where the conflict situation attracts the most attention, it is Khartoum State in the capital circle. For more than five months, the two sides of the conflict have launched an attack on important military facilities, bridge crossings and supply routes. The rapid support force is highly mobile, and gradually goes deep into the community to fight street battles. At present, it has occupied the vast majority of sites in Khartoum. The Sudanese armed forces used the advantages of heavy weapons and air strikes to fight back.
How to fight hand to hand? For example, since the beginning of August, the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Force have been fighting fiercely around the armored headquarters base in the southwest of Khartoum. The base has a large number of tanks, ammunition and military vehicles, but the area is actually small, only 1.57 square kilometers. Today, the two sides still control the east and west sides respectively, and it is difficult to capture them all.

△ The battle for the armored headquarters base in the southwest of Khartoum continues.
Throughout Sudan, the Sudanese armed forces still firmly control the northern and eastern regions. In Darfur, the rapid support force formed an alliance with the local Arab tribal militia and controlled most of the area. Around the capital cities of Kordofan, siege and counterattack are also staged alternately.
There are far more than the above two camps involved in armed conflicts, and violent conflicts among four tribes in Darfur are also expanding. According to the statistics of local medical institutions, at least 260 people have been killed and more than 540 injured in the conflict between Bani Halba and Salamat in Southern Darfur. In the conflict zone, people’s communities were burned, livestock were killed and vehicles were destroyed. The reasons for the outbreak are not only the mutual robbery between tribes due to economic factors, but also the support of different tribes for two opposing armies, which deepened the contradictions between them. In addition, many local forces in Sudan are also divided into groups, either eyeing "neutral" observation or directly joining the battle.

An important change affecting the war situation in Sudan occurred on August 24. On the same day, Borhan, Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, successfully withdrew from the headquarters of the Sudanese Armed Forces in Khartoum, which was besieged by the other side, and then arrived in Port Sudan, the "administrative capital" on the Red Sea by helicopter. On this day, it was also the first time that Borhan appeared in public since the conflict broke out.

△ On September 13th, local time, Borhan, commander-in-chief of Sudanese Armed Forces, held talks with Turkish President Erdogan.
Since then, Borhan has made intensive overseas visits from Port Sudan to Egypt, South Sudan, Qatar, Eritrea, Turkey and Uganda, actively seeking extensive support from neighboring countries. It is reported that seeking weapons and financial assistance from these "friendly countries" is of vital importance to the Sudanese armed forces. At present, most of the industrial and military facilities in Khartoum have been destroyed, and it may be a long process for the armed forces to reproduce weapons and ammunition.
The two sides of the conflict are sharply opposed.
The dawn of peace has not yet dawned
There is also a recent trend worthy of attention. The Sudanese armed forces have suddenly stepped up their air strikes and extended their strike network to areas outside the capital circle. Statistics show that in the past two weeks, there have been at least 150 deaths caused by air strikes. For example, on September 10th, the Sudanese Armed Forces attacked a free market in the south of Khartoum, causing at least 40 deaths and more than 60 injuries. The tragic degree made doctors in local hospitals call it "horror and shock".
This is the largest number of civilian deaths in a single attack since the outbreak of armed conflict in Sudan. The area attacked by air is controlled by the rapid support force and heavily manned. A person familiar with the matter pointed out that the target of the air strikes by the Sudanese Armed Forces is likely to be the market for goods trading by the Rapid Support Force, which is also one of the main economic sources of the Force.

△ After the air raid on a market in Khartoum, the wounded were treated in a nearby hospital.
In the face of the protracted armed conflict in Sudan, although both sides of the conflict kept making promises verbally and were open to ceasefire and peace talks, they did not forget to shout at each other frequently. The Sudanese Armed Forces regarded each other as "rioters" and "traitors", while the Rapid Support Force attacked each other as "remnants of the former dynasty" and "old forces" representing the military government. After international mediation, the two sides reached a ceasefire agreement in Saudi Arabia several times, but the agreement has never been effectively implemented.
On the current situation in Sudan, Borhan once said, "Now is not the time for negotiation. We must invest all our strength to destroy the rebels in the battle. " D ‘Gallo, the leader of the Rapid Support Force, even threatened that "if we want, we can come to Sudan today". The analysis believes that since Sudanese President Bashir was dismissed in 2019, and then the civilian transitional government was overthrown in 2021, the two sides have always been in step. It was not until the military government came to power, involving real power distribution, military merger and economic benefit sharing, that it finally came to nothing. The contradiction between the two armed camps is irreconcilable for a long time, and the dawn of peace in Sudan is still far away.
Desperate people’s livelihood under the bonfire
Half of Sudan’s population is in dire need of humanitarian assistance.
International human rights organizations say that Sudan is no longer walking on the edge of atrocities, but has "fallen into the abyss".
The bullet left a mark, and the armed conflict triggered a severe humanitarian crisis, which has been strongly concerned by the international community. According to the UN report, there are currently more than 24.7 million people in Sudan who are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, which is about half of Sudan’s total population. The Sudanese people are experiencing an unimaginable disaster where the war is burning.
Five months after the conflict broke out, the key war zones between the two sides have been hit hard. It is difficult to find an inch of intact land in the streets of Khartoum, the capital, and the whole city is devastated. The infrastructure in a large number of residential areas is damaged, and power, water and poor communication often occur, and banks and gas stations also stop serving.
Due to blocked traffic lines and poor logistics, there is a shortage of food in residents’ homes. According to United Nations data, the armed conflict in Sudan triggered a sharp rise in food prices. At present, about 20.3 million people in Sudan are facing food insecurity, and at least 700,000 children are severely malnourished and face the risk of death. The persistent conflict also endangers the planting and production of crops this year, which will further aggravate the food crisis in Sudan.

△ Within one day, a bullet landed at the door of a resident in Omdurman.
The normal life of many Sudanese has come to a standstill. Whether it is a government agency or a private enterprise, employees are experiencing "salary cut" for several months, which adds to people’s economic burden.
Sudan’s domestic medical system has also been hit hard. At the worst, 80% of hospitals in the country can’t operate normally. The hospitals in Khartoum, the capital, and the central and western regions of Darfur are the first to bear the brunt. The shortage of drugs and medical devices has become a universal problem in China, and the dialysis patients who need to go to the hospital every week are particularly worried. For safety reasons, some doctors even turned their home into a clinic. On social networks in Sudan, people exchange ideas and discuss how to give birth to pregnant women at home.
September is supposed to be the start of school in Sudan, but it is difficult for Sudanese students to return to school in conflict-affected areas. According to the statistics of UNICEF, about 19 million school-age children in Sudan are facing the problem of no schooling. The Sudanese education department has stated that the start of school depends on when the conflict ends.

△ Sudanese children under conflict
An economic crisis may have arrived. Since September, the exchange rate of Sudan’s national currency, the Sudanese pound, has depreciated sharply against the US dollar, and the domestic inflationary pressure has risen sharply. The war caused Sudan’s largest refinery to be forced to shut down and the fuel supply chain was seriously damaged. Some mineral resources companies in the Sultanate also said that the conflict has caused the gold production to drop to 2 tons this year, while the total output will reach 18 tons in 2022. Sudan was once the second largest gold exporter in Africa. In July this year, Sudanese economists generally predicted that the economic losses caused by the armed conflict in Sudan had reached 9 billion dollars, equivalent to 100 million dollars a day.
On September 13th, the latest report released by the International Organization for Migration showed that up to now, the armed conflict in Sudan has caused more than 5.25 million people to be displaced. Among them, more than 4.11 million people from 820,000 families fled in Sudan, most of them fled from Khartoum State, where the fighting was the fiercest, and more than 1.13 million Sudanese refugees fled to Chad, Egypt and South Sudan. It is worth noting that Sudan has been one of the largest refugee receiving countries in Africa before the outbreak of this conflict. When the war broke out, these refugees had to embark on a tortuous and arduous migration road again.

△ The conflict in Sudan has displaced more than 5.25 million people, and a large number of refugees have taken refuge in refugee camps in neighboring countries.
At present, there are various predictions about the situation in Sudan, one of which is that if the armed conflict in Sudan continues to escalate, it will not be ruled out that there will be "two governments" in the east and the west at the same time. In the 67 years since Sudan’s independence, it has experienced three civil wars, which lasted for more than 40 years. This time, people can’t help but ask, if a full-scale civil war breaks out again, how long will it last, what will be the impact, and how long will the suffering of the Sudanese people last?
Producer Mu Muli
Producer Li Chao
Reporter Weasion Wei


