Revealing the speculation behind ＂garlic you are malicious＂： the funds of large speculators exceed 100 million.

　　Xinhua News Agency, Jinan, April 17th　Title: Small speculators claim to have invested 1 million yuan and earned 1 million yuan-revealing the speculation behind "garlic is cruel"

　　Xinhua News Agency "Xinhua Viewpoint" reporters Yuan Junbao and Liu Jinhui

　　Recently, "garlic you malicious" once again. According to the investigation of Xinhua Viewpoint reporters in Jinxiang, Shandong, Zhongmu, Henan and other major garlic producing areas, the decline in output and market supply and demand are the decisive factors of this wave of "garlic you are ruthless" market, but there are also many speculators who add fuel to the flames.

　　In the eyes of speculators, garlic market is like a casino. If you bet right, you can get rich overnight and return home in a luxury car; If you make a mistake, you will lose everything, and the debt collector will make it difficult for you to return home. Speculators influence prices through various means. Some small speculators bluntly said that "they invested 1 million yuan this year and almost earned 1 million yuan", and the funds of large speculators even exceeded 100 million yuan.

　　"Once in heaven, once in hell" is a big casino speculator with funds exceeding 100 million yuan.

　　"The world garlic sees China, and China garlic sees Jinxiang". In Nandianzi Garlic Market on Jincheng Road in Jinxiang County, hundreds of garlic brokers gather every day. It is known as "Garlic Wall Street" in the industry, and the garlic price in the whole country and even the whole world is dominated by it.

　　Jinxiang is one of the main garlic producing areas in China. The garlic in Jinxiang and several surrounding counties and cities accounts for more than half of the garlic production in the main garlic producing areas, and the inventory is more than 60%. Here, it is no secret that "garlic is fried". Sometimes a batch of garlic is changed hands several times without moving in the cold storage. Driven by the "garlic you are malicious" market, many investors become rich overnight.

　　"I invested 1 million yuan this year and almost earned 1 million yuan." Lao Cheng, a garlic merchant in Mamiao Town, Jinxiang County, said that he is only a small family, and the funds of more than 10 million yuan are considered medium, and some large families have funds of over 100 million yuan. Lao Cheng saved 200 tons of garlic last year, which was about 5 yuan/kg at the time of collection, and this year’s selling price was about 12 yuan/kg. Excluding the storage cost of 1 yuan per kg, he earned almost 5 yuan per kg.

　　Mr. Sun, a garlic investor in Linyi, Shandong Province, regretted not investing in garlic this year. "A friend earned 4 million yuan and just drove back a Mercedes-Benz with more than 1 million yuan two days ago."

　　It is understood that in July last year, when jinxiang garlic began to purchase and put into storage after harvest, the price was about 4.7 yuan/kg, but it reached 12.8 yuan/kg in mid-March this year, up 170%. "The highest price this year has exceeded the high point in 2010." Yang Guihua, executive director of Jinxiang Garlic Industry Information Association and secretary general of China Garlic Industry Information Alliance, said. 2010 is the year when "garlic is cruel" was widely known.

　　Huge profits also mean huge risks. The price of garlic peaked in 2010, 2012 and 2016, while it was lower in other years. Especially at the end of 2008, the price of garlic once fell to only a few cents or even a few cents a catty.

　　Zhongmou county, Henan Province is also an important garlic producing area. Mao Xiaoan is a garlic broker in zhongmou county, and has been working for 20 years. "I lost almost all my money in 2008, and I didn’t pay off the loan until last year." He said. Lao Cheng also told reporters that in 2012, the price of garlic fluctuated greatly, and he lost more than 600,000 yuan. Half of the money invested is your own, and the other half is raised by relatives and friends.

　　In 2012, a foreigner named "Zhu Laosan" came to Jinxiang. "At that time, he brought hundreds of millions of yuan of funds. As a result, after a large number of purchases, the price rose rapidly in the short term but fell quickly, but lost more than 100 million yuan." An industry insider in Jinxiang County said.

　　In the eyes of some garlic merchants, investing in garlic is gambling. Although they know that there are huge risks, garlic merchants still enjoy it. "If you earn money, you want to earn more, and if you lose money, you want to make money."

　　"Fried garlic" such as "stock trading" runs through the whole cycle of production, warehousing and sales.

　　According to Cui Xiaona, an agricultural product analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, there are three reasons for this round of garlic price increase: First, the output has declined; Second, the demand for domestic demand and exports has not decreased or even increased; The third is hype. "In 2014, the national output decreased by about 8%-10%. The heavy snow and cold wave at the end of 2015 and the beginning of this year aggravated the expectation of garlic production reduction this year."

　　In the eyes of most garlic merchants, market supply and demand are the most fundamental factors that determine the price of garlic. "There are more garlic, and it is difficult for you to fry again." However, they also admit that speculation has played a role in fueling the flames, intensifying the fluctuation range of prices, and "anything can be used" in the process of speculation.

　　"At present, traditional business is not easy to do. Some big speculators, such as some real estate developers in Northeast China and Shanghai, who hold capital, have a hand of 30,000 to 40,000 tons. When there was less garlic on the market in March and April of the following year, they began to drive up the price and create the expectation that the price of garlic would rise sharply. " Liu Shaochen, president of zhongmou county Refrigeration and Preservation Association, said.

　　The reporter’s investigation found that the general expectation of garlic production reduction this year was the initial factor of garlic price increase, but in the process of news dissemination, some of them were exaggerated or even artificially used. "At that time, in the garlic exchange group, some people released news of garlic production in some areas, but it was later confirmed that it was not so serious." A garlic operator in Jinxiang said that especially at the end of February this year, garlic merchants held a fresh-keeping industry conference in Shandong. The data from the meeting said that the national inventory was only 600,000 tons. Since that day, garlic has started a "crazy rise" mode.

　　In addition to making a fuss about the true and false news, according to many insiders, in the process of price manipulation, big garlic merchants have many means, one of which is to buy and sell themselves, create price illusions, and guide other garlic merchants to follow suit; Second, when preparing for shipment, we bought it at a higher price, but the actual purchase volume was small, and at the same time, we secretly signed a large number of orders for shipment. "It is very similar to stock trading, and various methods and means are used, even more." An industry insider said.

　　According to industry insiders, in recent years, in order to ensure the source of garlic, garlic merchants have generally begun to "secure land" before garlic goes on the market, that is, to buy future garlic in advance at a certain total price. "Gambling garlic has run through the whole cycle of garlic production, warehousing and sales."

　　When does Garlic City Casino close?

　　Although the price of garlic has skyrocketed, for many garlic farmers, the direct benefits are few. Chen Dongfeng, a garlic farmer in Yuzhuang Village, Wang Pi Town, Jinxiang County, said that he had to put it in storage before September of the previous year. The price he sold was 4.4 yuan/kg, and it didn’t matter how it rose after that. All the people who made money were fried garlic.

　　With the listing of new garlic in various places, the price of jinxiang garlic has dropped to about 8.4 yuan/kg. Experts in the industry said that the most fundamental thing to reduce the skyrocketing garlic is to stabilize the planting area and output, and on this basis, increase the release of authoritative information, increase market transparency and reduce the space for speculation.

　　It is understood that Jinxiang County has introduced garlic price insurance to promote the enthusiasm of garlic farmers. Yang Guihua said that the insurance price is determined by the average price in previous years, planting cost and other factors to protect the interests of garlic farmers. Chen Dongfeng and other garlic farmers said, "This is a good guarantee for us."

　　Some insiders believe that it is difficult to identify and supervise garlic speculation. On the one hand, there are still different views in the industry on whether the phenomenon of hoarding goods and reluctance to sell goods belongs to market behavior or artificial manipulation; On the other hand, even if large merchants are United, it is difficult for relevant departments to grasp specific evidence.

　　How can we reduce hype? Yang Guihua and others believe that authoritative information release should be increased to reduce unreasonable expectations. Some insiders suggest that on the basis of standardization, futures trading should be moderately carried out to achieve an effective balance of multiple short positions, so as to stabilize the price of garlic.