Powell hinted that the Fed will continue to suspend interest rate hikes.

　　Xinhua News Agency, Washington, October 19 (Reporter Xiong Maoling) In a speech at the New York Economic Club on October 19, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed may continue to suspend interest rate hikes at the next monetary policy meeting.

　　Powell said that the significance of raising interest rates is to affect the financial situation, and the recent increase in the yield of long-term US government bonds is leading to the tightening of the financial situation, so it is necessary to observe the next development trend.

　　On the same day, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds once rose to nearly 5%, a 16-year high.

　　Powell said that although the inflation level in the United States has dropped significantly, it is still significantly higher than the Fed’s long-term target of 2%. It is estimated that the core personal consumption expenditure price index will rise by 3.7% in September. He said that it remains to be seen whether the inflation level can continue to decline towards the target, which also means that the Fed will still keep the option of raising interest rates further.

　　Since the beginning of this interest rate hike cycle in March last year, the Federal Reserve has raised the target range of federal funds interest rate from near zero to 5.25% to 5.5%. Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has slowed down the pace of raising interest rates. After the monetary policy meeting in June, it announced a moratorium on raising interest rates. In July, it raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and in September, it announced a moratorium on raising interest rates again.

　　Powell said that a series of uncertainties, old and new, make the task of the Fed to formulate monetary policy more complicated. "Doing too little" may make high inflation deeply rooted, while "doing too much" may cause unnecessary harm to the economy.

　　The Fed’s next monetary policy meeting will be held from October 31st to November 1st. According to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s Federal Reserve Observation Tool on the 19th, the probability that traders predict that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting is as high as 99.6%.