12 billion housing enterprises, who is the dark horse and who is going out.

Text/Zhang Xinmeng

It took only one year for the industry’s TOP3 threshold to soar from 200 billion to 300 billion.

In 2016, China’s real estate turnover increased by nearly 30%. What is this concept? "The automobile industry grew by 9%, e-commerce by 20%, and express delivery by 50%. The only thing that exceeded the real estate growth rate in China was express delivery. However, the express base is too small, which is nothing compared with real estate. " Chen Jinsong, chairman of World Bank, made a comparison in the recent Midtown Alliance Forum, which made the 10 trillion real estate plate more specific.

The TOP20 threshold increased by 81% year-on-year

Real estate rivers and lakes, a year of melee, Evergrande surpassed Vanke with sales of 373.15 billion, becoming the first real estate enterprise. Vanke and Country Garden ranked second and third with 363.3 billion and 309.03 billion respectively. Time went back to a year ago, when the leaders were Vanke, Evergrande and Greenland, and the record of the top three remained at 200 billion+.

Sales amount of China real estate enterprises in 2016 TOP20

According to Kerry data, the threshold of TOP20 housing enterprises has increased from 35.8 billion yuan to 64.67 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 81% year-on-year. The total sales of TOP20 increased from 2012.28 billion yuan to 2967.32 billion yuan. The threshold for entering the top 100 has also increased from 10.38 billion yuan to 15.68 billion yuan, up 51% year-on-year.

In terms of sales area, the entry threshold of TOP100 housing enterprises has also improved, from 900,000 square meters in 2015 to 1.29 million square meters, up 43% year-on-year. The biggest increase was the TOP50 threshold, which increased from 1.63 million cubic meters in 15 years to 2.38 million cubic meters, up 46% year-on-year.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2016, the national sales of commercial housing reached 10,250.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.5%. According to the forecast of the growth rate in the first 11 months, the national commercial housing sales will exceed 11 trillion yuan in 2016.

According to the growth rate of commercial housing sales in the first 11 months, in 2016, the total sales concentration of the top 200 real estate enterprises has exceeded 50%, accounting for half of the real estate market in China. It is expected that the concentration of housing enterprises will further increase in the future, and the situation of "strong and strong" will be further intensified.

Billion clubs expanded to 12.

In the TOP20 list, there are four new housing enterprises, namely Xincheng Holding, Shoukai, Xuhui and Luneng.

The market development momentum is strong, and its significance to medium-sized housing enterprises may exceed that of giants such as Vanke. As Peng Kong, the helm of Xuhui Beijing, who just broke 10 billion yuan, said in an interview with Netease Real Estate, "At least Xuhui Beijing is a 10 billion-dollar organization, just like an Olympic champion. It is not won every day, but there is an essential difference between winning and not winning." Team combat capability may be able to reach a higher level with the experience of scale.

Country Garden, the "King of Suburbs", jumped from the seventh place to the third place, and its annual performance increased by 121%, reaching the threshold of 300 billion yuan, successfully achieving the screaming goal of the group. Earlier, Mo Bin, president of Country Garden Group, talked about this year’s performance and admitted that the market played a great role. It is worth mentioning that in the land market, Country Garden is even more fruitful. In the whole year, 74,461,800 cubic meters of land was added, which not only ranked first among 30 typical housing enterprises, but also set the largest land acquisition area in Country Garden over the years, with an increase of 95% compared with 2015.

In addition to the established 700 billion housing enterprises, in 2016, Sunac, Huaxia Happiness, Greentown, China Resources and Jindi also entered the threshold of 100 billion for the first time, and the number of 100 billion clubs expanded to 12. Excluding the factors of rising house prices, mergers and acquisitions have become a booster for these housing enterprises to rapidly increase their scale. In particular, Sunac’s acquisition in the industry has provided it with a large number of low-cost saleable values. Take Sunac’s acquisition of seven projects of Lemon International in 2016 as an example, with a total price of 4.394 billion yuan and an average unit price of only 2,751 yuan. More importantly, Sunac successfully completed the layout of all first-tier cities with this acquisition.

With its strong expansion, Evergrande finally realized its "One Brother Dream". The data shows that from the listing of Evergrande in 2009 to 2016, the compound annual growth rate of sales is as high as 43.6%, the compound annual growth rate of turnover is also 69%, and the average core net profit rate is about 10.45%. Just as the industry generally believes that 2017 is the year of real estate adjustment, Evergrande announced on January 2 that the expected sales from 2017 to 2019 are about 450 billion yuan, 500 billion yuan and 550 billion yuan respectively.

Wanda, which has been committed to de-real estate, fell from the fourth place in the rankings to the tenth place. During the annual period of the industry, the sales amount of Wanda actually showed negative growth, down by 41.24 billion yuan. At the beginning of 2015, Wang Jianlin announced that the real estate sales target would be lowered by 40%, from 164.08 billion yuan in 2015 to 100 billion yuan. Previously, Wang Jianlin had repeatedly stated that by the end of 2016, Wanda would no longer be a real estate enterprise. In the process of transformation, traditional real estate investment and sales will inevitably be squeezed.

TOP10 local housing enterprises in Beijing account for six seats.

In the first eleven months of this year, the total supply of new commercial housing in four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen reached 28.15 million square meters. It decreased by 22% year-on-year, of which the supply of commercial housing in Beijing was 6.38 million square meters, with a turnover of 12.56 million square meters, up by 14% year-on-year. Although the supply of housing in first-tier cities has declined, house prices have risen rapidly. Taking Beijing as an example, the sales of TOP10 housing enterprises have all exceeded 10 billion.

Beijing sales amount TOP10 housing enterprises

According to the ranking of sales amount of Kerui real estate enterprises, the total sales amount of TOP10 real estate enterprises in Beijing market in 2016 was 216.9 billion yuan. Among them, the first one ranked seventeenth in the country, occupying the first place in the Beijing market in terms of sales amount and sales area.

In the first sales share of 65.41 billion yuan, the Beijing market accounted for 52.5%, reaching 34.364 billion yuan. The old state-owned enterprises that have been deeply involved in Beijing for 36 years, at the brand launch conference in 2015, the first figures announced were 29 projects that were on sale and about to enter the market. In the Beijing market, where land is scarce, the "big landlord" first put forward the strategy of "urban revitalization officer" and turned his attention to shed reform, old community reform and other fields.

In the Beijing market in 2016, Sunac was the biggest dark horse. The annual sales performance reached 26.993 billion yuan, 17.192 billion yuan higher than the previous year, and jumped from the eighth place in 2015 to the second place.

In fact, Sunac won the sales crown in Beijing in 2013, and its performance at that time was 12 billion, which was basically close to the sales of the tenth financial street this year. However, with the rapid development of its projects, the prolonged digestion cycle of high-end projects and the tight policies, Sunac’s performance in the Beijing market was average in 2014 and 2015, and even its performance fell below 10 billion in 2014. With the loose policy, Dinghao’s market performance is extremely outstanding, and the "No.1 Hospital" products laid out by Sunac have finally ushered in spring.

In 2016, the real estate industry experienced an upward-downward curve, and the indicators of sales, investment and start-up showed an anticlimactic trend. With the continuous tightening of policies, many executives of real estate enterprises have made it clear that the market in 2017 is definitely not as good as that in 2016, and the market target will be lowered.