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Original Zhiyuan Xin Zhiyuan Xin

Zhiyuan Xin reports.

Editor: editorial department

[Introduction to Zhiyuan Xin] Grok of xAI opened its source as scheduled after seven days! Open the code behind Grok and let Musk slap his face at OpenAI. There are 8 MOEs with 314 billion parameters, and the weight structure is fully open. As soon as the project is launched, it has already snapped up 6k stars on GitHub.

When it comes to doing it, Grok of Musk xAI is really open source as scheduled!

Just now, xAI officially released the weight and architecture of the 314 billion parameter hybrid expert model Grok-1.

With a parameter of 314 billion, Grok-1 has become the largest open source LLM so far, four times that of Llama 2.

At present, xAI has not disclosed more information about Grok-1.

The information released by official website is as follows-

-The basic model is trained on a large amount of text data and has not been fine-tuned for any specific task.

The MoE of the-314B parameter has a weight of 25% that is active on a given token.

-In October, 2023, xAI started training from scratch using a custom training stack based on JAX and Rust.

Once online GitHub, Grok snapped up 6k stars and 586 Fork.

Project address: https://github.com/xai-org/grok-1.

Musk did not forget to ridicule OpenAI, "Tell us more about the" open "part of OpenAI …"

The new york Times commented that the original code behind the open source Gork is an upgrade of the future battle that the richest man in the world controls AI.

Will open source make technology safer or will it make it more abusive?

Musk, an "open source supporter", set an example and got involved in this heated debate in the AI community, and gave the answer with actions.

Xiao Zha also commented on Grok just now. "It didn’t really impress people. There are too many parameters of 314 billion. You need a bunch of H100, but I have already bought it."

A magnetic chain, the world’s first largest model open source.

This time, xAI open source Grok-1 is licensed by Apache-2.0, so users can freely use, modify and distribute the software.

The repository contains JAX sample code for loading and running the Grok-1 open source weight model.

Users need to download checkpoint, put the ckpt-0 directory in checkpoint, and then run the following code to test:

pip install -r requirements.txtpython run.py

This script will load the checkpoint and the samples in the model on the test input.

Because the model is large and the parameters reach 314B, a computer with enough GPU memory is needed to test the model with sample code.

Moreover, because the implementation efficiency of MoE layer in this repository is not high, this implementation is chosen to avoid the need to customize the kernel to verify the correctness of the model.

Through the Torrent client and the following magnetic link, you can download the weights.

magnet:? xt=urn:btih:5f96d43576e3d386c9ba65b883210a393b68210e&tr=https%3A%2F%2Facademictorrents.com%2Fannounce.php& tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.coppersurfer.tk%3A6969&tr=udp%3A%2F%2Ftracker.opentrackr.org%3A1337%2Fannounce

More details

Andrew Kean Gao, a Stanford researcher, browsed model.py and introduced more information about the architecture of Grok. There are no additional clauses for the 314 billion parameters.

8 mixed experts (2 active experts), 860B active parameters. It uses rotation embedding instead of fixed position embedding.

-tokenizer vocabulary: 131,072 (similar to GPT-4) is equivalent to 2 17.

-Embedded size: 6144(48*128)

-Transformer layer: 64 (each layer has a decoding layer: multi-head attention block and density block)

-Key size: 128

Multi-head attention module: there are 48 query headers and 8 key values.

Dense block (dense feedforward block):

-Width factor: 8

-The hidden layer size is 32768.

Each token selects 2 out of 8 experts.

The embedding size of the rotation position is 6144, which is meaningful, and it is the same as the input embedding size of the model.

-Context length: 8192 token

-Accuracy: bf16

Finally, attach a summary map.

Netizen: Open source battle is coming.

The AI community is already boiling!

The technical community points out that the highlight of Grok is the use of GeGLU and normalization method in the forward feedback layer, and the use of interesting sandwich norm technique.

Even OpenAI employees have expressed their strong interest in Grok.

Jim Fan, a senior scientist in NVIDIA, said, "The largest open source model in history was trained by a world-class team and released through the magnetic chain Apache 2.0.

314B parameter, mixed expert model (8 experts and 2 active). Even the active parameter scale (86B) exceeds the largest Llama model. I can’t wait to see the benchmark results and what kind of applications people can build with it. "

Sebastian Raschka, an AI researcher, said that Grok is more open-source than other open-source modular models that usually have restrictions on use. However, it is less open source than Pythia, Bloom and Olmo, which provide training code and reproducible data sets.

Boris Dayma, the founder of Craiyon, analyzed the code of Grok-1 in detail.

Netizen indigo said that in order to "understand the universe", it seems that the xAI team deliberately set the parameter as "pi 314B", which is the largest open source model at present. It is expected that Llama 3 will join Grok’s open source battle in June this year.

After Grok opened the source, a big wave of fine-tuning is coming.

The first generation Grok has surpassed Llama-2-70B.

In November, 2023, xAI launched its first generation of big language model, Grok, and formally joined the big model war.

At that time, Grok used Twitter as part of the "Premium+" subscription service, with a monthly fee of $16.

XAI said that Grok’s design was inspired by The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, which can answer almost all questions and help people pursue understanding and knowledge regardless of background or political stance.

Grok’s original version, Grok-0, had 33 billion parameters, and then xAI introduced Grok-1, which was improved several times to support the Grok chat robot on X.

According to the data released by xAI, in a series of benchmark tests such as GSM8K, HumanEval and MMLU, Grok-1 outperformed LLMA-2-70b and GPT-3.5, although it was far from GPT-4.

At that time, Grok was not only able to handle the user content generated in real time on the X platform, but also had a little sense of humor, which injected a little vitality into the simple AI.

While providing information about the latest hot events (whether political or sports), it can also be clever and even occasionally sarcastic.

Why did Musk choose open source?

After mocking OpenAI as "CloseAI" several times, Musk really chose to open his own big model.

Of course, there must be commercial considerations behind this.

As a market leader, OpenAI has no reason to open source the model code behind ChatGPT.

Now, by releasing Grok’s code, Musk firmly rooted himself in the latter camp. This decision may make his xAI surpass Meta and Mistral AI.

Llama’s open source has brought many benefits to Meta, and almost made Xiaozha climb out of the quagmire of the meta-universe.

Mistral AI, which is just a small start-up, is also famous for its open source strategy and is recognized by the industry as "OpenAI in Europe".

The open source version may encourage developers and potential customers to adopt their own models more quickly, which actually plays a marketing role.

The feedback and improvement from the developer community on the open source version of Grok may also help xAI to speed up the development of new versions, which can choose to open source or keep exclusive rights.

For example, like Mistral, it promises to continue to release open source versions while retaining the most advanced models for paying customers.

Musk has always been a supporter of open source technology. Even Tesla has opened the source code of some parts of the car, and his social media platform X has published some algorithms for content ranking.

"There is still work to be done, but this platform is by far the most transparent, truth-oriented and not a high threshold platform," Musk said today in response to comments on the open source X recommendation algorithm.

Although OpenAI is still far ahead in the AI field, the war between open source and closed source is far from over.

Should the AI model be open source? Some people think that this powerful technology must be protected from intruders, while others insist that the advantages of open source absolutely outweigh the disadvantages.

As a market leader, OpenAI has no reason to open source the model code behind ChatGPT.

Now, by releasing Grok’s code, Musk firmly rooted himself in the latter camp.

This decision may enable his xAI to finally surpass Meta and Mistral AI.

References:

https://x.ai/blog/grok-os

here's your DEEP DIVE into @grok's architecture!
I just went through the https://t.co/8Y5cjeImg6, for this 314B open source behemoth with *no strings attached*.

👇🧵 pic.twitter.com/CraHKGqILe

— andrew gao (@itsandrewgao) March 17, 2024

https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-no-choice-open-chatbot-grok/

Original title: "Musk faces OpenAI, the world’s largest Big Mac model Grok-1 is open source! 314 billion parameters, 8 MoE, GitHub madly took 6k stars "

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CCTV News:The State Council Press Office held a regular briefing on the State Council policy at 3 pm on July 17th. Wang Jiang, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology, and the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Justice introduced the Regulations on the Protection of Payment for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises and answered questions from reporters.

Wang Jiangping introduced that small and medium-sized enterprises are the most dynamic enterprise groups, an important support for expanding employment and improving people’s livelihood, and an important foundation for building a modern economic system and achieving high-quality economic development. In recent years, influenced by the complicated and changeable economic situation at home and abroad and the downward pressure on the economy, the payback period of enterprise accounts has been extended, and some organs, institutions and large enterprises have the problem of owing money to small and medium-sized enterprises to varying degrees, which has seriously infringed on the legitimate rights and interests of small and medium-sized enterprises, aggravated their financial difficulties and even endangered their survival. Small and medium-sized enterprises have strongly reflected this and attracted wide attention from all sectors of society.

the first　　Purpose of award

Guiding and promoting intellectual property work plays an important role in supply-side structural reform, innovative country building and high-quality economic development; Encourage and commend patentees and inventors (designers) for their outstanding contributions to technological (design) innovation and economic and social development.

the second　　Award cycle

China National Intellectual Property Administration and the World Intellectual Property Organization jointly carry out the selection of the China Patent Prize, which is held once a year.

Article　　Award settings

China Patent Awards include China Patent Gold Award, China Patent Silver Award, China Patent Excellence Award, China Design Gold Award, China Design Silver Award and China Design Excellence Award.

China Patent Gold Award, China Patent Silver Award and China Patent Excellence Award were selected from invention patents and utility model patents, and there were no more than 30 China Patent Gold Awards and no more than 60 China Patent Silver Awards. China Design Gold Award, China Design Silver Award and China Design Excellence Award were selected from the design patents, with no more than 10 gold awards for China design and no more than 15 silver awards for China design. The winning proportion of China Patent Excellence Award and China Appearance Design Excellence Award does not exceed 30% of all kinds of qualified projects.

Article 4　　Review organization

The China Patent Award Evaluation Committee (hereinafter referred to as the Evaluation Committee) was established in China National Intellectual Property Administration, and China National Intellectual Property Administration, together with the World Intellectual Property Organization, carried out the evaluation, approval and award of the China Patent Award. The review committee has a review office, which is responsible for the daily organization and coordination.

Article 5　　Evaluation index and weight

(1) Invention patents and utility model patents

1. Patent quality (25%). Evaluation: novelty, creativity and practicality; Text quality.

2. Technological advancement (25%). Evaluation: originality and importance; Compared with the advantages and disadvantages of current similar technologies; Universality of patented technology.

3. Application and protection measures and results (35%). Evaluation: patent application and protection measures; Economic benefit and market share.

4. Social benefits and development prospects (15%). Evaluation: social benefits; Industry influence; Policy adaptability.

(2) Design patent

1. Patent quality (25%). Evaluation: innovation and industrial applicability; Text quality.

2. Expression of design points and ideas (25%). Evaluation: uniqueness of design points; Artistic and symbolic; Functionality

3. Application and protection measures and results (35%). Evaluation: patent application and protection measures; Economic benefit and market share.

4. Social benefits and development prospects (15%). Evaluation: social benefits; Development prospect.

Article 6　　Recommendation and evaluation procedures

(a) China Patent Award participating projects are recommended by local intellectual property offices, intellectual property management agencies of relevant departments and units in the State Council, national trade associations, academicians of China Academy of Sciences and China Academy of Engineering, etc. according to the requirements of the selection notice of the year.

(two) the evaluation office is responsible for the preliminary examination of the recommended projects, and organize the relevant preliminary evaluation work.

(three) the evaluation office according to the preliminary evaluation, put forward a list of pre winning projects, submitted to the evaluation committee.

(four) the review committee shall examine and approve the list of pre-winning projects, and determine the winning projects and their award levels.

(five) the evaluation office in the China National Intellectual Property Administration municipal government portal publicity selection results.

Article 7　　Objection handling

(a) China patent award selection work to accept social supervision, the public has objections to the publicity project, can be put forward to the evaluation office within the specified time.

(2) The review office receives the objection materials, sets up an objection handling team, analyzes the specific situation of the objection, forms the objection analysis materials and handling opinions and reports them to the review committee. After the review committee decides, it will notify the objection party and the project applicant and the recommending unit of the handling opinions.

(three) the relevant personnel involved in the objection handling shall keep the identity of the objector and the relevant objection information confidential.

Article 8　　Award

China National Intellectual Property Administration and the World Intellectual Property Organization, according to the publicity of the selection results, will award prizes to projects that have no objection or the objection is not established, jointly award medals and certificates to the inventors (designers) of the projects that won the gold medal, and award medals to the patentee; China National Intellectual Property Administration awarded certificates to the inventors (designers) who won the silver award and the excellence award, and medals to the patentee.

China National Intellectual Property Administration held a meeting with the World Intellectual Property Organization to jointly commend the inventors (designers) and patentees who won the prize.

China National Intellectual Property Administration announced the winning results through TV, Internet, newspapers and other media.

Article 9　　Withdraw the prize

For the award-winning project, if it is found that the submitted materials are untrue and there is evidence to prove that they do not meet the award-winning conditions, the evaluation office will put forward the opinion of revoking the award, and with the approval of the evaluation Committee, the award will be revoked and the medals and certificates will be recovered.

If the patent right of the winning project is completely invalid, the China Patent Award granted to the patent will be automatically revoked with the invalidation of the right.

Article 10　　These Measures shall be interpreted by the China Patent Award Evaluation Office.

Article 11　　These Measures shall be implemented as of the date of issuance. The Notice of China National Intellectual Property Administration Office on Printing and Distributing the Measures of China Patent Awards (Guo Zhi Ban Fa Guan Zi [2018] No.20) shall be abolished at the same time.

The "Little Book-turning Party" is a sub-column of the "Book-turning Party" in The Paper: reading the knowledge in books in a well-documented way.

In the hit drama Ode to Joy, almost all the protagonists use Apple phones, except Qiu Yingying, who seems to have a replacement Android phone. We don’t know whether Apple also paid the advertising fee for this play, but it’s not surprising if there are a group of people around you who are using Apple phones, and everyone may encounter one or two "fruit fans" who are obsessed with Apple products and act as "free salesmen".

Martin Lindstrom of marketing guru said in his "brand brainwashing" that "fruit powder" is actually similar to Christians.

His exact words are as follows:

As we all know, no brand can become a cult-like, almost religious worship brand like Apple (in fact, in an experiment I did for my last book, when I studied the brains of Apple fans with functional magnetic resonance imaging, I found that their brain activities are similar to those of Christians), and peer pressure is the core of many Apple strategies. One of the strategies is "early recruitment", in other words, it is to sell it to children aged 13-17. This marketing activity is so effective that about 46% of the children of this age now own an iPod, and the product that children talk about most among themselves is the iPod, and a questionnaire survey shows that 82% of all high school students with portable music players use the iPod.

Once these children entered the university, Apple began to openly "recruit", hired college students to become "Apple campus representatives" and turned the whole university bookstore into a mini-Apple store. One job advertisement said, "This is a great opportunity to be an Apple spokesperson and have some fun." The job description includes hosting workshops, organizing activities, and establishing good relations with students, faculty and students’ parents. The most important thing is, "You will cooperate with the Apple team to implement marketing projects on campus, including promoting sales and raising the awareness of Apple products … We need a leader who can inspire peers and cooperate with student organizations."

This copy is very clever: who doesn’t want to think of himself as a leader, a trendsetter and a person who can inspire his peers? I would like to add that if you often go to the movies, you may think that people all over the world use Apple products-this is a victory that combines product implantation and peer pressure. In 2009, almost half of Hollywood movies-about 46%-featured Apple or Apple products. Although it is generally believed that this behavior does not involve money transactions, there is no better way to expose advertisements and brands.

Well-documented:

Martin thinks that Apple has obviously taken advantage of people’s psychology: it succumbs to some potential "peer pressure", that is, people want what others want. And the more obvious the needs of others are, the more we want what they have. According to Martin, this is what advertisers and marketers have known for a long time.

Black Friday and "11.11" snapping up may also take advantage of this psychology:

This fear of’ if someone else takes it, we will miss it’ drives fanatics to queue up at 4 am, just to get the latest iPad2 or a pair of UGG wool boots with rare colors, and this is why a bargain hunter was trampled to death outside Wal-Mart on Long Island on a black Friday a few years ago. If you bid for goods on eBay, you are likely to fall victim to this trap unconsciously. If there is only one product (for example, there is only one penguin tea set in the world), then the fear that’ others may easily get a set of mugs with orange beaks’ will drive people to raise the bid price exponentially-and pay a price far beyond the value of the product.

Martin thinks that the bestseller list also takes advantage of "peer pressure":

To know how much strangers’ preferences and purchases affect our decisions, just look at the leaderboard phenomenon. Imagine you walk into a large chain bookstore as big as a football field. Faced with a large number of choices, it is still quite risky to spend $27.99 on a novel or memoir that you later find hard to read. But wait, what’s on the independent shelf on your right? This week’s "Best-selling List of The New York Times", including fiction and non-fiction, has more than 20 books in total. Subconsciously, you think, "If so many people buy this book, it must be a good book", and then you think, "If so many people are reading this book, won’t it be out of date if I don’t read it?" Now, you not only avoid the pain of going through four floors and not knowing how to start, but also get the recognition of your peers who buy books. This is not a happy coincidence in the publishing industry. In fact, although publishers want you to believe the contents of the list, the main reason why the best-selling list existed at first was not only to track sales, but also to make us think that these books were "pre-approved"—in other words, if we didn’t read the books that everyone else was reading, we would be ill-educated, unable to keep up with the trend, and would be excluded from the national language theory.

Well-documented:

More interestingly, Martin found that even if consumers are "used", they still think that their buying behavior is rational:

Of course, we don’t always realize that the perceived popularity of goods affects our preferences. Recently, I asked 10 female fans in louis vuitton in a focus group: "Why do you like this brand so much?" Everyone mentioned the quality of zippers, leather and brand immortality. I am doubtful about that. So we scanned the brains of these 10 women with functional magnetic resonance imaging. Every time we show them pictures of louis vuitton products, the "Brodmann area 10" in the brain will be lit up, which will be activated when people see something they think is "cool". These women rationalize their buying behavior and tell themselves that they like this brand because of its high quality, but their brains know that they actually make choices because they are’ cool’. Even the brain can’t stand the fact that we are excluded, which seems to indicate that whether it is "hot" songs, "that" gifts or "trendy" designer handbags, what we finally buy has nothing to do with what we want, but more of what we think we should.

But the most interesting thing is that Martin found that even marketers themselves will fall into this trap:

For example, the planner of every advertising company I know (in most European advertising companies, this position is to do consumer research) has a beautiful Moleskine leather notebook. This was not sent when they joined the company; It has become an unwritten rule that every planner of an advertising company must own one and use it. If you don’t, it means that you are isolated and not an insider.

Book shadow:

　　Cctv news(Reporter Liu Wei): The Beijing Daxing International Airport Expressway, with a total length of about 27 kilometers, is an important part of the "five vertical and two horizontal" comprehensive traffic trunk road network outside Beijing Daxing International Airport, and it is also a new bridge connecting the world. It is known as "the first road in the country".

　　(Photography Liu Wei)

　　On August 5th, an interview group of the network theme activity "Together with each other in five years" came here to visit. During the introduction of Zhang Yanduo, assistant general manager of Beijing Investment Transportation Company, the reporter caught several key words of this high-level expressway.

　　Safety: The freezing point of the snow-melting pavement drops to minus 12 degrees.

　　(Photo courtesy of Beijing Municipal Transportation Commission)

　　It is understood that in order to ensure the traffic safety of high-speed vehicles and improve the driving experience, the surface layer of the 23-kilometer bridge of the project is made of snow-melting materials, which can reduce the freezing point of the road surface to about MINUS 12 degrees, effectively improve the impact of snow and ice weather on the highway capacity, and greatly reduce the use of conventional snow-melting materials and reduce the damage to the environment and bridge structure. It is the first time in China to adopt the technology of melting ice and snow pavement in such a large scale in a project.

　　Wisdom: Intelligent street lamps and active luminous signs are widely used.

　　(Photography Liu Wei)

　　According to reports, Daxing Airport Expressway adopts advanced measures such as comprehensive control technology, smart street lamps and active luminous signs. Street lamps can be brightness level by themselves according to the environment; In foggy days, the guide device has a prompt flashing every 20 meters; Traffic sign facilities themselves are light sources, which keep emitting light continuously. Under any conditions, vehicles and pedestrians can easily identify themselves visually and take behavioral measures to further build a travel safety guarantee system.

　　In the process of project construction, we actively cooperate with relevant scientific research institutions and use a variety of new technologies to build a new model of wisdom and high speed. Provide a fast and convenient access experience by using the mobile Internet charging system; Through the establishment of comprehensive monitoring system, intelligent analysis of big data, simulation deduction and electronic sand table to create a smart management system, and strive to create a safe, comfortable, convenient, fast, efficient and intelligent "new country gate first road."

　　Modernization: "Three Lines and Four Bridges" Synchronized Rotation Break the Record

　　(Photo courtesy of Beijing Municipal Transportation Commission)

　　According to the data, the control project of the project crosses beijing-shanghai railway and crosses the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, and it is constructed synchronously with three projects and four bridges of the track line and Tuanhe Road, and it is successfully completed by using the "skylight point" of railway transportation in 90 minutes in the morning. Make full use of BIM technology in the process of project implementation, generate the whole deduction before turning, accurately calculate and improve the control ability, and greatly reduce the safety risk. The synchronous swivel project of "Three Lines and Four Bridges" led by Beijing Investment Co., Ltd. pioneered the cluster swivel construction of long-span bridges across the railway in China.

Special feature of 1905 film network　The 2024 National Film Work Conference was held in Beijing from April 18th to 19th. Guided by Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought of the Supreme Leader in the New Era, the conference thoroughly studied and implemented the cultural thought of the Supreme Leader and implemented the spirit of the important instructions of the General Secretary of the Supreme Leader on film work.

Hu Heping, Vice Minister in charge of daily work of Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. Responsible comrades in charge of film work in the Propaganda Department of the Party committees of all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, responsible comrades in the film department, and representatives of state-owned and private film units and film professional colleges attended the meeting.

Management departments at all levels, front-line experts and scholars in the industry, industry associations and enterprises have jointly studied the latest ideas of the supreme leader’s cultural thoughts and industry management, and exchanged and shared the film work experience in 2024. In this programme, Professor Zhifina from China Academy of Art is invited to focus on the 2024 National Film Work Conference with us.

As a participant, Zhifina came to ""as soon as after the meeting and conveyed the spirit of the meeting to everyone. "This is not only a learning exchange meeting, but also a deployment summary meeting. Participants share their feelings about the development of the industry with rich emotions and express their opinions on promoting the development of the industry." Zhifina said.

The meeting pointed out that although China’s films have made good recovery achievements, there is still a certain gap with the development of high standards. Film workers should fully respect artists, doers, consumers and reformers, respect the laws of industry, market, management and communication, respect the reality of industry development, social development and international environment, be innovative in content and inclusive in extension, carry forward the main theme and spread positive energy with an open attitude.

The meeting focused on three key words: reform, consumption and creation, summed up the reasons and achievements of the film industry’s recovery since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and made clear and comprehensive arrangements for the future film work.

Reform is the first priority.

The current policy framework of the film industry was formulated in the era of lack of domestic film development. According to the data, in 2003, there were 1800 screens and 1024 cinemas in China, with a box office of 990 million. By the end of 2023, the number of cinemas in China will reach 14,000, with 86,310 screens and a box office of 54.915 billion yuan. In the past 20 years, the number of cinemas has increased by 14 times, the number of screens has increased by 47 times, the film output has increased by 10 times, and the number of people watching movies has increased by 37 times. Obviously, the policy aimed at the era of scarcity is no longer applicable to guide the current situation of excessive hardware development in the industry, and the policy reform of the film industry is imminent.

On how to reform the film market, Zhifina put forward the "three respects" principle of respecting the laws of art, market and management.

Respect the law of art

First of all, respect the laws of art. Film workers should re-understand the open connotation of the main theme and respect artists and creators.

Respect for industrial laws

Second, respect the laws of industry. In-depth reform of marketization and industrialization of the film industry. At the distribution level, more film resources can reach the audience by means of sub-line distribution, sub-regional distribution, focus distribution, classified distribution and sub-fare distribution. In terms of publicity, traditional film companies should learn to make use of the communication advantages of the Internet, so that publicity can be effectively converted into movie attendance and more audiences can enter the cinema.

Respect the management law

Third, respect management rules. The management department should change the thinking of political achievements, actively accumulate experience, speed up the administrative examination and approval, take the survey data of movie audiences as a guide, put the focus of the reform on promoting audience consumption, and avoid using the "three axes" policy of making movies, building bases and holding festivals.

It is urgent to promote consumption and expand domestic demand.

Another key point in the meeting is to increase the audience under 25. The data of three surveys of movie audiences in 2011, 2015 and 2021 show that the average age of movie audiences has increased significantly. Zhifina explained: "I participated in the three surveys of movie audiences and found that the movie audience did not flow on a large scale. From 2011 to 2021, it was still a group of audiences, so how to attract new young audiences into the cinema is an important issue."

In order to promote the consumption of the film and television industry and expand the internal demand of the film industry, we must first ensure the content quality, formulate a reasonable price strategy, let the audience buy cheaper movie tickets, attract new audiences to enter the market, and reduce the average age of the audience. Secondly, we should improve the publicity and marketing mechanism of the film industry, so that the audience can truly understand and fall in love with the film.

Creation is the foundation of film.

Film creation that responds to the needs of the audience is the foundation of filmmakers. At this stage, the movie audience’s demand for watching movies has expanded to absorb emotional value and emotional resonance. Zhifina thinks: "Movies should provide more power to warm people’s hearts. A good movie can affect people’s life." The current film creation should fully respond to the needs of the audience and strengthen the emotional connection with the audience.

Only by adhering to the development principle of "keeping integrity, innovating and accelerating reform", embracing new technologies, opening up new markets and enhancing the sense of responsibility and mission can China’s film market flourish and remain invincible in the long-term competition.

　　At present, mycoplasma pneumoniae, influenza, streptococcus pneumoniae and other respiratory pathogens are in the epidemic stage, many people are recruited, and some people have mixed infections with multiple pathogens. What is mixed infection? Who is prone to mixed infection? How to prevent it? Look at the authoritative answer.

　　What are the more popular pathogens at present?

　　Autumn and winter are the seasons with high incidence of respiratory infectious diseases in children. In addition to mycoplasma pneumoniae infection, influenza virus, adenovirus, respiratory syncytial virus and so on have appeared one after another. This is in line with the previous fashion trend.

　　At present, the most popular pathogens are mycoplasma pneumoniae, influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus and streptococcus pneumoniae. These respiratory tract infections usually have symptoms such as cough, expectoration, runny nose, fever and general fatigue.

　　Mixed infection means that more than two pathogens are infected at the same time. Most clinical "mixed infections" are mainly the combination of viruses, bacteria and mycoplasma.

　　Who is prone to mixed infection?

　　Children, the elderly and people with basic diseases are susceptible to respiratory diseases, and they are also more prone to mixed infection of multiple pathogens. Children should strengthen protection, avoid cross-infection, avoid contact with patients, and reduce the chance of being infected.

　　There is mixed infection, how to treat it?

　　After mixed infection, early differential diagnosis is very important. Now most medical institutions can detect influenza virus, Covid-19 and mycoplasma, which is helpful to implement targeted treatment as soon as possible.

　　If influenza or Covid-19 is complicated with mycoplasma infection or bacterial infection, it is usually necessary to add antibacterial drugs, and at the same time give symptomatic treatment such as fever reduction, cough relieving and phlegm elimination, but the use of antibacterial drugs needs the guidance of doctors. For most patients, after taking medicine, drinking plenty of water and taking enough rest according to the doctor’s advice, the condition can be relieved in 1 to 2 weeks.

　　If the fever lasts for more than 72 hours or the body temperature exceeds 40℃, or if you cough frequently, it will affect your normal life, or if you have symptoms such as chest pain, wheezing, hemoptysis, shortness of breath or dyspnea, poor spirit and frequent vomiting, you should go to the hospital in time.

　　How to prevent mixed infection?

　　Vaccination against influenza is a safe and effective way to prevent influenza, which can effectively reduce the risk of influenza virus infection, hospitalization and serious illness and death in autumn and winter. It is recommended that all ≥ People who are 6 months old and have no vaccination contraindications are actively vaccinated against influenza.

　　In daily life, you should wash your hands frequently, open more windows for ventilation, cover your nose and mouth as much as possible when coughing or sneezing, and wear a mask when necessary. During the epidemic period of respiratory diseases, try to reduce going to places where people gather.

　　Keep enough sleep and eat high-quality protein and foods rich in vitamin A and vitamin C in your diet. Do a good job in family hygiene. If any family member has respiratory tract infection, pay attention to isolation. People with chronic respiratory diseases or other chronic basic diseases should try their best to reduce going to places where people gather.

　　Audit: Wang Quan, an expert in the national health science expert database and chief physician of the Department of Critical Care Medicine, Beijing Children’s Hospital affiliated to Capital Medical University.

　　Planning: Yu Yunxi Wang Ning

Blind people dare not take the blind road: I don’t know what is waiting for me ahead.

On the sidewalks of the city, there is always a strip of blind roads. For people with visual impairment, the blind road is a "static eye". They judge the direction of the road through the detection of the blind road brick by their feet and blind poles. However, in an interview recently, the reporter found that there are many obstacles on the blind road in Shijiazhuang street, which seriously affects the travel of the blind and even brings them danger.

phenomenon

The bike is parked on the blind road.

On both sides of the blind road on the street sidewalk, a row of cars stopped on one side, and a row of bicycles and electric cars stopped on the other side. The rear wheels of non-motor vehicles occupied a large part of the blind road. This is the scene that the reporter saw on a service road south of the intersection of Ping ‘an Street and Huai ‘an Road on the afternoon of July 31st.

"The blind road has become like this. We people with healthy eyesight have to be careful when passing. How can the blind get by?" A gentleman passing by here lamented.

On the streets of Shijiazhuang, such a situation is not uncommon.

The blind road in front of northland supermarket in Zhaiying South Street is occupied by a row of bicycles and electric cars. There was a special parking space for non-motor vehicles in front of the supermarket, but because the parking space was full, someone parked the car directly on the blind road for convenience.

There is also a phenomenon that the blind road is occupied by bicycles next to the entrance of Beiguo Mall Station and Northern Song Dynasty Station on Metro Line 1. Bicycles are parked in disorder, which not only occupies the blind road, but also blocks the pedestrian passage. Many pedestrians have no choice but to bypass the road.

In front of the book building, some cars parked directly on the blind road, and they stopped in a row, completely blocking the blind road.

Roadside facilities play "edge ball"

In some places, obstacles have been erected on blind roads.

On a section of service road near Jianhua Street on Donggang Road, a row of iron piles with a height of 20-30 cm were erected close to the blind road. In some places, even irons stood on the other side of the blind road, and a short section of iron piles even circled the blind road into the parking lot. The motor vehicles parked here just cover the blind road. A lady who lives nearby said worriedly, "For blind people, I’m afraid they will trip on such a blind road."

On Ping ‘an Avenue, there is a small iron house next to the blind road, which also makes people worry about the blind people passing through here, fearing that they will bump into the house when they walk.

Mahjong table on the blind road.

In addition to some vehicles or facilities occupying blind roads, some citizens also occupy blind roads when setting up stalls or having fun.

On Zhaiying South Street, several citizens put tables on the blind road and played mahjong, with some onlookers watching the battle.

The citizens who played mahjong said that they didn’t realize that they occupied the blind road. They just felt that it was cool under the tree and few people passed by, so they played mahjong here.

The reporter also saw the interruption of blind roads in many road sections. On a section of Ping ‘an Avenue, not only the blind road was interrupted, but also a manhole cover was tilted, which simply became a "trap".

affect

Blind people usually dare not go blind.

Wang Huaijie is the owner of a blind massage shop on Jianming North Road. He told reporters that he was hit by an obstacle on the blind road when he was walking. This kind of thing has happened many times. "Once in the street in front of my shop, a sorbet seller put the sorbet box on the blind road, and people were not around. I couldn’t see it, so I went straight ahead and bumped into the sorbet box. " Wang Huaijie said, fortunately, he walked slowly, and there was nothing serious, but he was shocked at that time.

"On the road in the middle of the tree, inclined cables with telephone poles pass through the blind road, high and low. Walking through there, you often stumble when you meet the low ones, and sometimes there are wires on the high ones. Once I went to my sister’s house and passed there, and I was scratched by wire. I don’t know who to look for, I can only admit that I am unlucky. " Wang Huaijie said, "Some blind roads are too close to tree pits or green areas, so we can’t see them. It’s easy to walk askew. If you accidentally step into a mud pit on rainy days, your shoes and socks are wet."

Speaking of the impact of obstacles on the blind, Wang Huaijie has a lot to say. He said that some vendors will occupy blind roads, which is not bad, and stall owners will remind themselves when they see it. The most troublesome thing is that sometimes bicycles or other sundries will appear on the blind road, and no one will remind him that he is often tripped or injured.

Mr. Geng, the owner of another massage shop, said that he also had the experience of almost tripping over wires. Sometimes the blind road disappears when walking, leaving him at a loss. "Now I don’t take the blind road, because I don’t know what’s waiting for me in front, or it’s safer to walk by the curb." Mr. Geng’s words represent the voices of many blind people. They usually prefer to walk along the road in the non-motor vehicle lane when they go out, thinking it is safer. Some blind friends simply avoid traveling alone, but they really need to go out and let their families accompany them.

It is understood that blind people need to constantly compose pictures in their minds when walking, and build a three-dimensional picture with the feeling and hearing under their feet. The blind stick in their hands is like a detector, and they can check the road conditions 1 meter away at any time. When there is an obstacle at a certain point in this picture, it is necessary to detour, and this obstacle point will stay in this three-dimensional picture for a long time, and they may not dare to pass here next time. Because of this, many blind people are afraid to take the blind road because of the obstacles on the blind road.

hotline

Which department can take care of the blind road?

The blind road is occupied. Is there any department that can manage it?

The reporter called the Shijiazhuang City Management Hotline 12319, and the staff of the urban management department said that this situation needs to be understood by relevant personnel before replying.

Then the reporter called the hotline of Shijiazhuang Mayor 12345, and the staff said that they would report it to the relevant departments and hand over the matter.

sound

Blind roads are the standard of urban civilization.

The blind road is the standard of a city civilization. For everyone who needs to use the blind road, this road is "just needed". However, due to various reasons, there are many obstacles on the blind road, which makes the blind people afraid to take the blind road, and the blind road has become a decoration.

Shi Yunfeng, vice chairman of Hebei Association for the Blind, said that the occupation of blind roads is an old topic, and the state has always attached great importance to the travel of blind people, requiring all urban public roads to have blind roads. However, in real life, many citizens simply don’t have this awareness. It is not uncommon for bicycles, cars and stalls to occupy blind roads. Although they have appealed for many years, they have not been well solved.

"Now it is not only unsafe for disabled people to walk in the blind road, but also dangerous. When they walk, the wire hanging on the blind road cuts their faces, or they rub against other people’s cars and even fall into the sewer when they walk. The blind road not only failed to guide the blind to walk, but became a’ road killer’. " Shi Yunfeng said that there are many irregularities in blind road construction. In some places, blind roads are often laid according to the direction of roads, but the practicality of blind roads is ignored. "Builders don’t use them, users don’t have the right to speak", so that there are manhole covers and stay wires in the middle of blind roads.

"There are currently 79,000 visually disabled people in Shijiazhuang, and the occupation of blind roads and the irregular construction have affected their lives; For the country, it is also a huge waste that blind roads can’t be used when they are built. " Shi Yunfeng called on the relevant departments to effectively deal with this situation, and hoped that blind friends as users could be involved in the design and laying stage of blind roads, so as to effectively make blind roads play its due role. (Reporter Lu Weili Intern Yang Liyun)

　　Some artificial lanes are congested, the pass card is not recognized, and the toll amount is displayed incorrectly; Some car owners feel that the charges have increased … … Since January 1st, when the provincial toll station of expressway was cancelled and the new fast toll collection system was connected to the grid, the system was generally stable, but there were also some new situations and problems. On January 17, Wu Dejin, director of the Highway Bureau of the Ministry of Transport, and Wu Chungeng, spokesperson, responded to social concerns at the regular press conference of the Ministry of Transport.

　　After the station was withdrawn, the freight car charging standard was re-approved.

　　All localities will review the standards to prevent illegal price increases.

　　Some car owners reported that the toll became higher after the station was withdrawn. Why did this happen? Is the charging method changed?

　　"In the process of withdrawing the station, the toll standards of passenger cars in various places have not been adjusted. What has changed is the rounding rules of the fee and the accurate charging according to the actual traffic route; In order to realize the fast charging of trucks without stopping, the charging of trucks was changed from charging by weight to charging by model, and the provinces also re-approved the charging standard of trucks. " Wu Dejin said that when the Ministry of Transport previously asked all localities to verify the freight car toll standards, they should strictly follow the requirements of "two guarantees and one reduction", that is, to ensure that the overall burden of freight car tolls will not be increased under the same traffic volume conditions, and that the toll payable for each type of toll vehicle in the standard loading state will not be greater than the toll payable for the original toll by weight, so that the tonnage corresponding to the new toll standards will be at least 10% lower than the full tonnage.

　　Wu Dejin introduced that before this, all localities had formulated relevant charging standards through legal pricing procedures, and all of them were made public and interpreted before January 5. The Ministry of Transport has also asked all localities to carry out in-depth review of charging standards. "Those who do not meet the requirements should be implemented by lowering the charging standards or differentiating fees, and they must never take the opportunity to raise prices in violation of regulations and increase the burden on enterprises. Regarding the problem of rising rates reflected by everyone, we will instruct the relevant provinces to verify one by one, find out the reasons, properly dispose of them according to law, and earnestly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the public. "

　　Wu Dejin also told reporters that in order to further improve the transparency of charges, the Ministry of Transport is organizing relevant units to develop apps or small programs. "After being put into use, the public can directly input the starting and ending points and driving routes and find out the corresponding tolls by themselves."

　　Troubleshoot system technical problems and improve information push settings.

　　Strive to realize the stable operation of the charging system before the Spring Festival.

　　At the beginning of the grid connection, the new toll collection system was unstable, which caused inconvenience to some ETC users’ normal travel. "In response to these problems, we set up a technical support team to organize technical backbone teams to guide provinces with weak foundations and unstable operations. Continuously optimize the system from the aspects of upgrading the entrance and exit lane software, optimizing the charging calculation module, and improving the recognition rate of ETC gantry system, so as to improve the operating efficiency and the accuracy of charging. " Wu Dejin told reporters that according to incomplete statistics, the lane system software has been upgraded more than 200 times, the rate calculation module has been upgraded and optimized more than 800 times, and the customer service APP and SMS applet have been tuned more than 30 times. "Recently, we have deployed ‘ Clear action ’ Re-examine and sort out the system, and strive to complete all the problems before the Spring Festival to promote the overall operation of the system. "

　　There are also some car owners who report that they frequently receive short messages of deduction when using ETC to take the expressway, which is quite puzzling. There are also many car owners who hope to achieve "one-time settlement and display the total cost" for export.

　　To solve these problems, Wu Dejin explained that after the station was withdrawn, the accurate charging of the expressway was carried out through the ETC portal system, that is, every time the vehicle passed an ETC portal, the system would charge accordingly. "The system should have formed a complete bill for the whole process of deduction, and then pushed it to the owner through SMS or APP. At present, the problem of frequent push is mainly due to the instability in the early stage of system switching, and sometimes the bills of sub-sections are pushed to customers. " Wu Dejin said that the Ministry of Transport has asked all localities to improve the information push system in strict accordance with the requirements of the technical scheme, so that the public can get relevant information accurately and timely.

　　Regarding the issue that the ETC lane exit does not display the full toll, Wu Dejin responded that the new networked toll collection system is an offline system. When calculating the full toll of a car at the ETC lane exit, it is necessary to call the toll collection records of the car from various ETC portal systems along the way, and the calculation time of the system will be longer than the time for the vehicle to pass through the ETC lane (270 milliseconds). "According to ‘ Access priority ’ Principle, ETC vehicle ‘ Pass first, then deduct the fee ’ The new charging system informs the whole cost through SMS and APP inquiry, but in the initial stage of system switching, both methods were not implemented satisfactorily. "

　　Wu Dejin told reporters that at present, the Ministry of Transport has deployed all localities to implement SMS push and APP inquiry in a timely manner in strict accordance with the technical plan to ensure that the public can know the toll amount in time. "At the same time, we have also studied and formulated the technical plan for the fee display according to the requirements of the majority of car owners. The next step will be to accelerate the related work and strive to implement it as soon as possible."

　　Measures are being taken to keep the system running and the site unblocked.

　　Never increase the travel burden of enterprises and people.

　　"With the continuous running-in and improvement for more than half a month, the operation of the charging system is constantly improving." At the meeting, Wu Chungeng introduced the traffic situation since the withdrawal of the station with a set of data: At present, the ETC utilization rate of buses has remained at around 76%, and the ETC utilization rate of trucks has increased from 17.04% on January 1 to 19.65% on January 14; The speed of vehicles passing through the entrance and exit toll stations increased by 13% compared with the same period of last year; The number of toll stations with daily average congestion of more than 500 meters at entrances and exits decreased by 21% compared with the same period of last year, and the average congestion duration decreased by 10% compared with the same period of last year; The time for buses and trucks to cross provincial boundaries has been reduced from 15 seconds and 29 seconds to 2 seconds and 3 seconds respectively.

　　"To cancel the provincial toll stations of expressways, it is necessary to comprehensively upgrade the software and hardware systems of all toll stations and toll lanes in the country to achieve interconnection, interoperability and mutual recognition." Wu Chungeng said that in view of the problems in the initial stage of system switching, the transportation system has taken a series of measures to ensure the system operation and smooth stops: establishing a three-level dispatching linkage mechanism between the Ministry of Transport, the Provincial Department of Transportation and the expressway toll station, and implementing 24-hour monitoring on the national network toll stations and expressway toll stations. If it is found that the length of congestion is more than 500 meters, the coordination mechanism will be started immediately to timely dispatch and divert to prevent large-scale traffic jams; Seriously accept complaints from the public, verify, deal with and reply to the clues reflected by the public one by one, and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of highway users.

　　"Next, we will earnestly improve our service awareness, solve the existing problems as soon as possible, and never give them to the broad masses of the people ‘ Add a block ’ Never increase the travel burden of enterprises and people, so that more people can enjoy the reform dividend and enjoy the benefits of convenient travel. " Wu Chungeng said.

Trump’s "olive branch" was categorically rejected by Iran.

Just before Iran recently held a routine annual military exercise in advance in the Persian Gulf, Trump, who recently sent Iran a "capital tweet" implying the use of force, unexpectedly said that he was ready to meet with Iranian leaders at any time without preconditions: "I am willing to meet, especially when I may face problems such as war, death and famine. There is nothing wrong with meeting. " "If they (Iran) want to, I am ready to meet them at any time." "There is no precondition. If they want to meet, I will. " Trump’s bizarre "olive branch" was not only categorically rejected by Iranian conservatives and moderates, but also failed to change Iran’s Persian Gulf military exercises as scheduled, and was criticized by the media at home and abroad.

Since Trump announced his withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal on May 8 this year, the diplomatic game and public criticism between the United States and Iran have never stopped. At present, the international community, especially international public opinion, is doubly concerned about whether the game between the United States and Iraq is developing in the direction of opening peace talks or evolving in the direction of opening war? Opening peace talks is undoubtedly big news, and opening war is even bigger news. This is undoubtedly another unpredictable suspense that Trump has created for the world. In my opinion, in the short term, there is no possibility for the United States and Iraq to start negotiations, let alone war. The two sides are still in the stage of diplomatic game and public opinion attack and defense between pressure and anti-pressure, sanctions and anti-sanctions.

Trump’s diplomatic "soap opera" was embarrassed.

Trump’s casual attitude is not serious, and it is naturally difficult to cause serious treatment and response from Iran. Trump’s loose talk shows that the United States and Iraq can hold unconditional negotiations, which is a manifestation of his capricious and consistent style. Just a few hours before Trump’s speech, US Secretary of State Pompeo also said that the United States and Iran would never hold unconditional talks, and Pompeo was nicknamed "the mouse in the maze" by the media.

Although Trump’s diplomacy is unpredictable, it has also formed a certain "diplomatic routine" on many crisis issues: first, it issued extreme threats, then changed its position, held talks, and finally announced its victory. The most typical case is Trump’s North Korean diplomacy. However, the Iranian nuclear issue is not only fundamentally different from the DPRK nuclear issue, but also Iran’s complicated bureaucratic system, especially the dual structure of conservative and reform forces, and the constraints of religious leaders on the president are very different from North Korea’s power structure, and the geopolitical environment in which the two hot issues are located is also very different. What’s more, the US-DPRK summit was realized under the pressure and communication of Trump for eight months after he took office.

Therefore, Trump’s loose talk about holding US-Iran talks was also accused by the media as a "diplomatic soap opera", and Iran, which has been engaged in diplomacy on the Iranian nuclear issue for 15 years since 2003, naturally will not make a positive response at will. The prospect that it is difficult for the United States and Iran to hold negotiations in the short term is just as Gerald Blank, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the United States, said: "Iran’s domestic political structure is much more complicated than that in the northern part of the peninsula, and it is not interested in diplomacy with the United States, especially after Trump asked the United States to withdraw from the multinational agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan." "At present, if anyone in the Iranian government tries to contact Trump, they are severely criticized by others."

The reaction made by Iran also proves this point. Motahari, deputy speaker of the Iranian parliament, pointed out: "After Trump made an arrogant talk to Iran, negotiation is impossible. This is an insult. " Iranian Interior Minister Fazley said: "The United States cannot be trusted. How can people trust after the United States is arrogant and unilaterally withdraws from the nuclear agreement? " Arribi, director of the Iranian project of the World Crisis Group, commented that "no Iranian leader will meet with the US president who has repeatedly threatened Iran, attacked the Iranian leadership and violated the nuclear agreement at this time."

"Old hatreds and new foes" make the United States and Iraq not qualified for negotiations.

In essence, Trump’s idea that the United States and Iran can negotiate unconditionally is more of a diplomatic strategy, which not only alleviates the international community’s widespread criticism that the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal, but also shifts the responsibility for regional tensions to Iran. At the same time, it is also a strategy to aggravate Iran’s domestic contradictions and disrupt Iran’s domestic political ecology. However, its arbitrariness and hypocrisy can be described as obvious, and Iran, which has rich diplomatic experience, will naturally not take it.

Of course, the deeper root of the difficulty in holding negotiations between the United States and Iran lies in the serious distrust accumulated by the confrontation between the United States and Iran in the past 40 years since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. The contradictions between the two sides spread throughout the social system, ideology and practical interests. From the beginning of the Islamic Revolution when the United States broke off diplomatic relations with Iran to the hostage crisis, from the 1980s when the United States supported Iraq to confront Iran in the Iran-Iraq war to the Clinton administration’s containment policy, to the Bush administration’s characterization of Iran as an "axis of evil" and its long-term sanctions against Iraq, and now the Trump administration brazenly withdrew from the hard-won the Iranian nuclear deal and exerted extreme pressure on Iran, it can be said that the old hatred between the United States and Iraq has not been solved, and new hatred has been added.

Therefore, negotiations between the United States and Iran are not realistic at all, just as Mehmetali Jaafari, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said: "Iranians will not allow government officials to meet with the Great Satan." of course，Contact between the United States and Iran through a third party is not excluded. Some analysts pointed out that Oman’s foreign minister visited Tehran and Washington one after another last month, which is likely to play an information communication role between the United States and Iran.After Rouhani came to power in 2013, it was Oman that brokered the bridge between Iran and the United States, which finally led to the resumption of US-Iran contacts and Iranian nuclear talks. According to reports, Trump had sent the message of holding bilateral talks to Iran eight times before. However, the United States kept pressing and shouting about the talks. In addition, the Iranian nuclear deal involved China, the European Union and Russia, which made Iran not easily hold bilateral talks with the United States, and even more afraid of falling into the diplomatic trap set by Trump.

Judging from the future trend, the possibility that the United States and Iran will return to negotiations will not be ruled out even if the United States exerts certain pressure on Iran and forces Iran to compromise in some areas of the 12 conditions put forward by the United States (such as Syria and other issues), but this will not happen overnight, and it is difficult for Iran to abandon other parties in the Iranian nuclear deal and negotiate with the United States alone.

The weight of war: the United States and Iraq can’t bear it.

From the perspective of the United States, although Trump has changed the Middle East policy during the Obama era since he took office, he has continued to exert his strength on the three hot issues of Syria, Palestine and Israel, but its essence is still to maximize the benefits with the minimum investment, and its core is to consolidate the alliance with Saudi Arabia and Israel and profit from it by shaping Iran into a regional core threat. However, Trump, who gives priority to the interests of the United States, revives the domestic economy and ensures the victory of the mid-term congressional elections, has no systematic plan to go to war with Iran rashly. This may be one of the specific reasons why Trump recently said that the United States and Iran can negotiate unconditionally. Its purpose is to cool down the situation in the Gulf region, which is becoming more tense in the context of Iran’s recent military exercises.

In essence, the United States should be well aware of the disastrous consequences of going to war with Iran. If it chooses a "preemptive" war to completely overthrow the Iranian regime, it will trigger regional turmoil and even a full-scale war, and will impact the international energy market and the whole world economy. If limited military strikes involving Israeli, Saudi and other allies are chosen, the United States will not be able to change the Iranian regime in a short period of time, and Iran will definitely choose to threaten to block the US military bases in the Strait of Hormuz and intensify the conflicts in Syria, Yemen and other regions in an all-round way, and the forces fostered by Iran in the Middle East will continue to create troubles. Iranian President Rouhani warned that the war between the United States and Iran would be "the mother of all wars", and this is the profound meaning. The strategic depth of Iran and the Persian nationality’s resistance to power will also be feared by the United States, and the lessons of the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan are just around the corner. Therefore, if Trump is still rational, it is unlikely that the United States will choose to launch a war against Iran.

Iran is facing more serious challenges. The contradiction between Iran’s conservatives and reformists has intensified after the United States restarted sanctions, and the people’s livelihood crisis aggravated by a large number of foreign capital fleeing, currency depreciation and soaring prices has made Rouhani face the phenomenon of "second term curse" of the president in Iranian politics (that is, both reformist and conservative presidents will hit a wall in their second term and end up in a bleak way, and hostile factions will come to power in the next presidential election) more serious, while the United States has become Rouhani’s "second term curse". At present, coping with economic difficulties internally and alleviating the economic crisis; Saving the Iranian nuclear deal from the outside world and easing the pressure of U.S. sanctions are the top priority of the Rouhani administration, which makes it not take the initiative to choose war at all. At present, although Iran has held a very high-profile military exercise, Iran will not easily take actions such as blocking the the Strait of Hormuz to aggravate tensions without a comprehensive or limited military strike by the United States.

Based on the above factors, in a certain period of time in the future, the United States and Iran will continue to struggle mainly in the fields of diplomacy, economy and public opinion, supplemented by mutual deterrence in the military field, and even the friction between the two sides in a third-party battlefield such as Syria will not be ruled out, but it is unlikely that the two sides will engage in direct local wars and total wars.

Of course, the United States will hope that Iran’s economic collapse and even regime collapse will be caused by extreme pressure, and Iran’s political and economic difficulties will naturally continue to intensify. However, Iran’s political toughness is much higher than that of Arab countries where regime changes have taken place before. The political system of the Islamic Republic, which combines religious centralization with democratic elections, a relatively complete bureaucratic system, the mutual restriction between the two forces of reform and conservatism, the absolute loyalty of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the regime’s ability to resist pressure for a long time under war and sanctions, are all factors that enable the Iranian regime to maintain its resilience.

Therefore, before the end of the mid-term elections in the United States this year and the deadline set by the United States for the termination of trade relations with Iran (November 4), the relationship between the United States and Iran will remain in a stalemate, and its future development remains to be observed and evaluated.

(The author is the director and professor of the Middle East Institute of Shanghai International Studies University)